Optimal simple monetary policy rules and welfare in a DSGE Model for Hungary

We explore the properties of welfare-maximizing monetary policy in a medium-scale DSGE model for Hungary. In order to make our results operational from a policymaker’s perspective, we approximate the optimal policy rule with a set of simple rules reacting only to observable variables. Our results suggest that “science of monetary policy” that is found robust in simple models, holds in this medium-scaled setting as well. That is, the welfare-maximizing policy that aims to eliminate distortions associated with nominal rigidities can be approximated by a simple inflation targeting rule. Adding exchange rate into the feedback rule only marginally improves the stabilization properties of the policy rule. However, a rule reacting to wage inflation can be significantly welfare-improving. These results may suggest that in our medium-sized model the distortions associated with sticky wage setting have at least as important welfare implications as those related to the price stickiness in product markets.monetary policy, central banking, policy design

Potential output in DSGE models

In view of the increasing use of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models in the macroeconomic projections and the policy process, this paper examines, both conceptually and empirically, alternative notions of potential output within DSGE models. Furthermore, it provides historical estimates of potential output/output gaps on the basis of selected DSGE models developed by the European System of Central Banks’ staff. These estimates are compared to the corresponding estimates obtained applying more traditional methods. Finally, the paper assesses the usefulness of the DSGE model-based output gaps for gauging inflationary pressures. JEL Classification: E32, E37, E52monetary policy, potential output, simulation and forecasting models

Potential Output in DSGE Models

In view of the increasing use of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models in the macroeconomic projections and the policy process, this paper examines, both conceptually and empirically, alternative notions of potential output within DSGE models. Furthermore, it provides historical estimates of potential output/output gaps on the basis of selected DSGE models developed by the European System of Central Banks’ staff. These estimates are compared to the corresponding estimates obtained applying more traditional methods. Finally, the paper assesses the usefulness of the DSGE model-based output gaps for gauging inflationary pressures.potential output, simulation and forecasting models, monetary policy